ABSTRACT
The reported incidence of COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) ranges between 2.4% and 35% in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and awareness in the medical community is rising. We performed a regional retrospective observational study including patients diagnosed with CAPA defined according to the Modified AspICU Dutch/Belgian Mycosis Study Group and CAPA-EECMM, from five different ICUs, admitted between March, 2020 and September, 2021. Forty-five patients were included. The median age was 64 (IQR 60-72), mostly (73%) males. At ICU admission, the median Charlson comorbidity index was 3 (2-5), and the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS)-II score was 42 (31-56). The main underlying diseases were hypertension (46%), diabetes (36%) and pulmonary diseases (15%). CAPA was diagnosed within a median of 17 days (IQR 10-21.75) after symptoms onset and 9 days (IQR 3-11) after ICU admission. The overall 28-day mortality rate was 58%, and at univariate analysis, it was significantly associated with older age (p = 0.009) and SAPS-II score at admission (p = 0.032). The use of immunomodulatory agents, p = 0.061; broad-spectrum antibiotics, p = 0.091; positive culture for Aspergillus on BAL, p = 0.065; and hypertension, p = 0.083, were near reaching statistical significance. None of them were confirmed in multivariate analysis. In critically ill COVID-19 patients, CAPA acquired clinical relevance in terms of incidence and reported mortality. However, the risk between underdiagnosis-in the absence of specific invasive investigations, and with a consequent possible increase in mortality-and over-diagnosis (case identification with galactomannan on broncho-alveolar fluid alone) might be considered. Realistic incidence rates, based on local, real-life epidemiological data, might be helpful in guiding clinicians.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the accuracy of a new COVID-19 prognostic score based on lung ultrasound (LUS) and previously validated variables in predicting critical illness. METHODS: We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort development and internal validation study of the COVID-19 Worsening Score (COWS), based on a combination of the previously validated COVID-GRAM score (GRAM) variables and LUS. Adult COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) were enrolled. Ten variables previously identified by GRAM, days from symptom onset, LUS findings, and peripheral oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen (P/F) ratio were analyzed. LUS score as a single predictor was assessed. We evaluated GRAM model's performance, the impact of adding LUS, and then developed a new model based on the most predictive variables. RESULTS: Among 274 COVID-19 patients enrolled, 174 developed critical illness. The GRAM score identified 51 patients at high risk of developing critical illness and 132 at low risk. LUS score over 15 (range 0 to 36) was associated with a higher risk ratio of critical illness (RR, 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-2.77; area under the curve [AUC], 0.63; 95% CI 0.676-0.634). The newly developed COVID-19 Worsening Score relies on five variables to classify high- and low-risk patients with an overall accuracy of 80% and negative predictive value of 93% (95% CI, 87%-98%). Patients scoring more than 0.183 on COWS showed a RR of developing critical illness of 8.07 (95% CI, 4.97-11.1). CONCLUSIONS: COWS accurately identify patients who are unlikely to need intensive care unit (ICU) admission, preserving resources for the remaining high-risk patients.